The End Of The Affair?

Maybe the plot line isn't quite the same as in Graham Greene's very fine (and somewhat autobiographical) novel, or the films based on it. Perhaps the scenario is a little more like Mildred Pierce, in which ambitious Mildred and her unimpressive ex-husband find themselves together after parallel roller-coaster rides of independence, success, lies, and betrayal. The love/hate triangle in this case involves manufactuirng, China, and the United States. Over tha past forty years or so, manufacturing has been lured away by the almond-eyed alluire of low-cost exotic labor. But, things do change. Wages in China have risen by 60% or 70% over the past few years. The esteemed strategy firm, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) now estimates (in an August report) that the total cost differential (incluiding both labor and transport) between China and the US will be 10% or less in just a few years. At that point, are the risks, uncertainties, performance variabilities, ans intellectual property exposures worth it? Will the next step be to go even farther away in search of younger, cheaper exotic labor? Or, will it clearly be time to come, if not home, closer to home? Today there are cases of return, or relocation to this hemisphere. Not yet a fad, and not with enough critical mass to be a clear trend. But, the possibility to become a 21st-century mega-trend is definitely there. The supply chain consequences could be enormous, in time, cost, structure, and reliability. The impact on relationships among supply chain partners could be seismic. I can't wait to see how the movie ends.