Timing is Everything

Two months?  Six Months?  Eighteen months?  Who knows?  As policymakers in Washington spar over the length of the next extension of the current surface transportation bill, it strikes me that this focus on the length of time also leads one to consider timing more generally.  As in, how does the T&I bill fit within the legislative cycle and perhaps more importantly, the political one. 

Nearly every serious observer of transportation issues believes that additional federal funding is necessary to restore our highways to world class status.  There is a sense of urgency led by Chairman Oberstar and Ranking Member Mica to get a bill out sooner rather than later.   According to many supporters, the infrastructure projects made possible by the bill are the very stimulus needed to put people back to work during the current economic crisis.  This is a credible argument and the projects involved are tangible, long-term investments in one of the most important underpinnings of our economy – the transportation system.   

Many transportation stakeholders and policy makers are supportive of the House T&I Committee’s $500 billion price tag for the next bill.   There is just one small detail – there is no clear way to pay for it!    This is not unusual in Washington and, though there is no clear favorite, there is no shortage of funding proposals.  Everything from VMT user fees, to taxes on each barrel of oil, to old fashioned (but elusive) fuel tax increases is being evaluated.   Even less clear than the means to raise the revenue is, the will of the Congress to impose the chosen revenue raising mecahanism on the motoring public, and when the timing is correct to do so.

That brings us to timing.  Apparently the Administration has decided that it is likely a tax increase will be necessary to pay for the next surface transportation bill.  It makes sense then that they desire an eighteen month extension, delaying any votes on highway/fuel tax increases until after the 2010 elections.  In fairness to the Administration, they do have quite an aggressive legislative agenda (including climate change and health care) that they want to complete before moving on to transportation.  That brings us to another timing issue.  If Congress passes climate change legislation that significantly raises fuel prices before the T&I bill is passed, there will be absolutely no appetite to raise taxes to pay for the significant increases in transportation spending that is so desperately needed.   Chairman Oberstar is correct to keep the pressure on and insist on the shortest possible extension.  Only in that way will there be multiple windows of opportunity to focus the debate and insert surface transportation reauthorization into the legislative agenda.  You see, timing (and politics) really is everything!