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And now for the logistics dislocation from the China tariffs.

By Steve Geary | 12/29/2018 | 5:26 PM

Last month we demonstrated channel stuffing on an international scale, quantifying the impact of the trade war with China on trade activity.

The partial government shutdown means that Census Bureau still hasn’t published statistics for November.  It isn’t clear when they will be published, either, so we looked at other sources. 

A quick scan of the Port of Los Angeles November volumes suggests that the predicted collapse in trans-pacific trade has begun.

Year over year imports at the port, measured in Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU’s), are down almost 9%.  Exports through the port are down over 14%.

If shipment activity through the Port of Los Angeles is a valid indicator of the health of trade with China, then the conclusion is inescapable:  a massive international logistics dislocation is underway.

2019 is going to be an interesting ride.



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About Steve Geary

Steve Geary

Steve Geary is an adjunct faculty member at the University of Tennessee's College of Business Administration, and is on the faculty at The Gordon Institute at Tufts University, where he teaches supply chain management. He is the President of the Supply Chain Visions family of companies, and Chief Operating Officer at ROSE Solutions, consultancies that work across the government sector. Steve is a contributing editor at DC Velocity, and editor-at-large for CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. He is listed in Who's Who in America, Who's Who in the World, Who's Who in Science and Engineering, and Who's Who in Executives and Professionals. In November of 2007, Steve was recognized for "Selfless Service to Our Nation and the People of Iraq" by the Deputy Secretary of Defense.


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