And now for the logistics dislocation from the China tariffs.
Last month we demonstrated channel stuffing on an international scale, quantifying the impact of the trade war with China on trade activity.
The partial government shutdown means that Census Bureau still hasn’t published statistics for November. It isn’t clear when they will be published, either, so we looked at other sources.
A quick scan of the Port of Los Angeles November volumes suggests that the predicted collapse in trans-pacific trade has begun.
Year over year imports at the port, measured in Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU’s), are down almost 9%. Exports through the port are down over 14%.
If shipment activity through the Port of Los Angeles is a valid indicator of the health of trade with China, then the conclusion is inescapable: a massive international logistics dislocation is underway.
2019 is going to be an interesting ride.
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